Weather Forecast October 02: Monsoon Withdrawal Set to Advance, Heavy Rain Likely Over South and Northeast India
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Monsoon withdrawal may progress further across northwest, west and central India during the next two to three days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is possible over parts of Northeast India, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours.
- Thunderstorms with gusts reaching 40–50 kmph may affect Kerala, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.
- Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and most of Uttar Pradesh are expected to remain mainly dry.
- Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.
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The Weather Systems Over The Country
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The Southwest Monsoon withdrawal line continues to pass through 32.5°N/72.5°E, Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa, Naliya and 23.0°N/67.8°E.
Conditions are likely to become favourable during the next two to three days for further monsoon withdrawal from the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh; most of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh; the entire Western Himalayan region; and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra.
The well-marked low-pressure area over north Myanmar and adjoining southeast Bangladesh, Mizoram and the northeast Bay of Bengal weakened into a low-pressure area at 5:30 AM IST on October 1. Its associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level and tilts southwards with height. The low is likely to remain over the same region during the next 12 hours.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over north coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. A north-south trough runs from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar across Tamil Nadu at about 0.9 km above mean sea level.
A Western Disturbance persists as a cyclonic circulation over north Haryana and adjoining areas between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level. Its upper-tropospheric trough runs near 75°E, north of 26°N.
Upper-air cyclonic circulations also persist over northeast Assam and over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar.
Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours
During the 24-hour period from 8:30 AM IST on September 30 to 8:30 AM IST on October 1, rain or thundershowers occurred at most places over south interior Karnataka and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Rain occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka.
Significant rainfall amounts included:
- Karaikal: 3 cm
- Bengaluru-HAL Airport: 2 cm
- Gadag: 2 cm
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- Tuni: 2 cm
The highest maximum temperature reported on September 30 was 39.5°C at Palayamkottai in Tamil Nadu, while the lowest minimum temperature was 16.9°C at Mandi in Himachal Pradesh.
Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal at isolated places over Marathwada and Telangana. Appreciably above-normal temperatures prevailed over parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Rayalaseema, Assam, Meghalaya, Vidarbha, Karnataka, Kerala, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Forecast
During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells is likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Isolated rain and thunderstorms may affect Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.
Rainfall will remain active over the southern peninsula. Fairly widespread to widespread rain is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and south interior Karnataka. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over coastal Karnataka, south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms are expected over north interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph may affect Kerala, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu. Gusts of 30–40 kmph are possible over coastal Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka. Strong surface winds may also affect Andhra Pradesh.
Isolated rain or thunderstorms may occur over Uttarakhand, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Konkan and Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra.
Mainly dry weather is expected over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and most of Uttar Pradesh. Dry conditions will also prevail over much of west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada.
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