Monsoon To Vacate Large Parts: Retreat From North, West, Center By The Weekend

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest Monsoon withdrawal began on September 19, 2026, two days behind schedule, but further retreat has remained paused for over a week.
• Conditions favour further monsoon withdrawal from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, northern hill states and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
• Monsoon withdrawal from Konkan, including Mumbai, is likely during the first week of October.
• A Western Disturbance may bring rain and thundershowers across North India from October 6-10, including scattered rainfall over Delhi.
• Forecast Validity: 01-10 October.

The Southwest Monsoon started withdrawal on 19th September 2026, two days behind schedule. It has vacated most parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, and some parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. The withdrawal line passes through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Deesa and Naliya. Further retreat has paused for more than a week now. However, conditions favour withdrawal from the western, central and eastern parts of the country.

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The anticyclone is well established over Rajasthan and adjoining Madhya Pradesh. Cloudless skies are prevailing, and a substantial drop in humidity levels is noticeable over the western and central regions. Monsoon retreat is likely from most parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, all the hilly states of the north, and some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra by the end of this week. Monsoon withdrawal from Konkan, including Mumbai, is likely by the first week of October.

Monsoon withdrawal does not mean complete cessation of rainfall activity thereafter. An active Western Disturbance is likely to approach by the middle of next week. Rain and thundershowers are likely along the foothills of Punjab and Haryana, along with the hills of North India, on 06th October 2026. The spread of weather activity will grow and cover the plains of Punjab, Haryana and North Rajasthan between 07th and 08th October.

The intensity and spread will increase further between 09th and 10th October 2026. The capital city, Delhi, will receive scattered rainfall between 08th and 10th October. This wet spell will set the stage for a flavour of winter across the mountains and plains of North India.

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