El Nino Casts Shadow: Monsoon Suffers Drought After A Decade

Key Takeaways:

• India has recorded 27 monsoon drought years between 1871 and 2026.
• Since 1950, 15 droughts have occurred, with 1972 and 2009 recording rainfall deficits exceeding 20%.
• Back-to-back droughts have occurred only five times during the 1871-2026 period.
• The current strong El Niño may have a remnant influence extending into spring and early summer next year.
• Forecast Validity: Until Next Update.

The Indian monsoon had suffered its last drought in 2015. There were back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015. Both these droughts were largely El Niño-driven, more so the 2015 one. The last El Niño in 2023 had triggered a below-normal monsoon. The powerful El Niño spared the Indian monsoon from an extreme impact, and the season finished with a rainfall deficit of 13%, therefore placing it in the ‘mild drought’ category. Any rainfall deficiency in excess of 10% and in the low teens gets figured as a mild drought. Undoubtedly, some pockets do get impacted severely even in this category of drought, as happened during the current season as well.

During the period 1871-2026, there were 27 drought years, defined as years with AISMR less than one standard deviation below the mean (anomaly below -10%). It is also important to note that, during 1871-2026, drought occurred in alternate years six times. Five times, drought has been observed for two consecutive years, meaning that the statistical chances of back-to-back droughts are quite low.

Since 1950, there have been 15 droughts: 1951, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1983, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2026. The most severe droughts were in 1972 and 2009, when the rain deficit was in excess of 20%, at -23.9% and -21.8%, respectively.

The monsoon has observed ‘good’ and ‘bad’ cycles lasting for fairly long periods. There was no drought for 20 long years between 1921 and 1940. In the subsequent two decades, there were 10 droughts between 1965 and 1987. In the 21st century, the Indian monsoon suffered five droughts between 2002 and 2015, followed by a long gap of ten years before the current drought of 2026. Actually, the monsoon rainfall was normal to above normal for seven out of ten years between 2016 and 2025.

Since 2001, the monsoon season has been struck by drought six times, and five of these were purely El Niño-triggered. The only exception was 2014, when El Niño conditions came up post the monsoon season. The current El Niño event is likely to remain very strong during the post-monsoon season and even at the start of winter 2027. The remnant effect of this event is likely to spill over into the spring and early summer next year.

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Monsoon-2026: Curtains Drawn - Season Ends With Drought