Monsoon Withdrawal Halts: Awaits Cessation Of Rainfall Over Eastern States

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest Monsoon withdrawal commenced from West Rajasthan on September 19, 2026.
• The monsoon had withdrawn from most of North India and large parts of western and central India by October 3.
• Continuing rain over eastern India may temporarily restrict further withdrawal, with conditions likely improving by October 10.
• Complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from India is likely on or before October 15, 2026.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

The Southwest Monsoon commenced withdrawal from West Rajasthan on 19th September 2026, slightly behind the scheduled date. The retreat was complete from most parts of North India by 23rd September. Further, the monsoon withdrew from the western parts of the country, including Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and a significant portion of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar by 3rd October 2026. The line of withdrawal continues to pass through Supaul, Ranchi, Raipur, Brahmapuri, Parbhani, Baramati and Harnai. Conditions are likely to become favourable for further withdrawal from the eastern parts by 10th October.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

The complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the entire country over the last ten years typically occurred between mid-to-late October, often lagging behind the normal date of 15th October. Withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the extreme northwestern parts is never attempted before 1st September, even if conditions become favourable. Similarly, the final and complete withdrawal of the monsoon from the entire country is not declared before 1st October. Basic conditions for the declaration of withdrawal include cessation of rainfall activity for five consecutive days, establishment of an anticyclone over Rajasthan in the lower levels, and satellite water vapour imagery confirming a considerable reduction in moisture content.

The withdrawal data for the last ten years vindicate that the Southwest Monsoon has not completed withdrawal before 15th October. The withdrawal started as late as 9th October in 2015 but vacated the entire country within six days, by 15th October. The most delayed withdrawal was on 28th October during this period. The earliest completion was on 15th October 2024. During the last two El Niño years, 2015 and 2023, the retreat from the country was complete on 19th October.

Eastern parts of the country continue to have scattered rain and thundershowers. Chapra in Bihar and Jamshedpur in Jharkhand recorded 11 mm and 35 mm of rainfall, respectively. Sundargarh in Odisha and Purulia in West Bengal registered 53 mm and 24 mm of rainfall, respectively. The weather activity will continue for the next three days. The cessation of rainfall thereafter will favour further withdrawal of the monsoon.

The southern parts, including Maharashtra, North Karnataka and Telangana, have generally remained dry for the last few days and remain quite conducive for the withdrawal of the monsoon. The complete withdrawal from the country is likely on or before 15th October 2026.