Minimal Rains In Mumbai Next Ten Days: August Shortfall To Grow

Key Takeaways:

• Mumbai recorded 1485 mm rainfall in July, over 60% above the monthly normal of 919.9 mm.
• Santacruz received only 85 mm against the normal of 150 mm during the first week of August.
• Weak monsoon conditions may keep Mumbai's rainfall subdued for the next ten days and possibly beyond mid-August.
• Day temperatures around 33°C, humidity above 60% and limited rainfall will keep conditions warm and sultry.
• Forecast Validity: Next 7-8 days.

Mumbai had recorded well above-normal rainfall in July 2026. The city registered 1485 mm of rainfall against the normal of 919.9 mm, more than 60% over and above the average. However, the month of August has made a dry start, and the airport observatory, Santacruz, has accumulated 85 mm of rainfall against the normal of 150 mm during the first week of August. The month of August is the second rainiest month after July, with a normal rainfall of 560.8 mm. The rain deficit is expected to grow large over the next ten days and may be longer.

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There is a cyclonic circulation over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh. This feature is still drawing westerly winds over the Konkan Coast from the Arabian Sea. Mostly single-digit rainfall has occurred for the last four days. This system is likely to get filled up in the next 48 hours. The monsoon trough is expected to shift close to the foothills around 11th-12th Aug and stay put, at least for about one week. The monsoon surge is likely to go soft all along the West Coast in general and the Konkan Coast in particular.

Monsoon systems over the Bay of Bengal and an active offshore trough are the main triggers for Mumbai rainfall. Both will be missing, leading to very poor rainfall. This drowsy spell could go on for the next ten days, to start with, and may extend further beyond mid-August. Mumbai and suburbs, at best, will have light rain and showers, and that too for a short duration. Sultry conditions may dominate, and warm-humid conditions will raise the discomfort index. The day temperature will stay close to 33°C (+/-1°C), and the relative humidity will remain above 60%. The sea breeze will provide some relief in the late afternoon and evening hours.

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