Weather Forecast November 13: Snowfall in Kashmir; Low Pressure Brewing in Bay of Bengal

Key Takeaways:

• Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Moderate to heavy rainfall may continue for the next 3–4 days under the influence of active weather conditions.
• Jammu and Kashmir: Light to moderate rain and snowfall, with isolated heavy spells, are possible during the next 48 hours.
• Bay of Bengal: A low-pressure area may form around November 13, strengthen by November 14 and intensify into a depression around November 15.
• Other regions: Light rainfall is possible across Himachal Pradesh, North Punjab, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
• Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.

Weather Systems Over the Country

A Western Disturbance persists as a cyclonic circulation over the Kashmir Division and adjoining areas, between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level.

The upper-air cyclonic circulation previously over Sikkim and adjoining areas now lies over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and its neighbourhood, between 1.5 and 3.1 km above mean sea level. A trough extends from this circulation to the northwest Bay of Bengal across Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal at 3.1 km above mean sea level. The cyclonic circulation over central Assam and adjoining areas persists at 1.5 km above mean sea level.

Two shallow cyclonic circulations persist at 0.9 km above mean sea level. One lies over the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area, while the other is over the Gulf of Mannar and its neighbourhood.

The upper-air cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas persisted at 5:30 a.m. IST on 12 November and extends into the middle troposphere. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 13 November. It is likely to move northwestwards, become a well-marked low-pressure area around 14 November and intensify into a depression around 15 November over the same region.

The cyclonic circulation over eastern Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas, which extended up to 3.1 km above mean sea level, has become less marked. The associated trough, which ran to the northwest Bay of Bengal across Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha at 3.1 km above mean sea level, has also become less marked.

Weather Activities During the Last 24 Hours

Moderate to heavy rain occurred over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Light to moderate rain occurred over coastal Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, parts of Kerala, West Bengal and Northeast India.

Isolated light rain occurred over Jammu and Kashmir and coastal Odisha.

Minimum temperatures remained significantly below normal by 5°C or more at a few places over East Madhya Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka, and at one or two places over Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.

Weather Forecast for the next 24 hours

Moderate to heavy rain may continue over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 3 to 4 days.

Light to moderate rain and snowfall, with isolated heavy spells, are possible over Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad during the next 48 hours.

Light, scattered rain is possible over Himachal Pradesh on November 12 and 13.

Isolated light rain may occur over North Punjab on November 12 and 13.

Light rain is possible over Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala.