Hat Trick Of Post-Monsoon Storms Likely Over Bay of Bengal: Cyclone By Next Midweek

Key Takeaways:

• A third cyclone of the post-monsoon season may develop over the Central Bay of Bengal around November 18, 2026 (±1 day).
• A low-pressure area is expected on November 13, becoming well-marked on November 14 and potentially intensifying into a depression by November 15.
• The developing system may recurve away from the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts, although its eventual track and landfall remain uncertain.
• West Bengal and Bangladesh could face an increased cyclone threat, with greater clarity on the system's movement expected by Saturday, November 14.
• Forecast Validity: Until next update on the development of cyclone.

The Bay of Bengal has been an active basin this post-monsoon season. Earlier, two cyclones, Arnab and Murasu, hit the Andhra Coast in quick succession. Arnab made landfall near Narsapur on 28th October 2026, and Murasu crossed the coast near Ongole on 2nd November 2026. And, within a fortnight, another potential storm waits in the wings, albeit with some ambiguity at this stage.

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The frequency of post-monsoon cyclones is higher over the Bay of Bengal than over the Arabian Sea. On average, the Bay Basin hosts two cyclones during the season. There has been a precedent of even three storms, as happened in 2023. Cyclones Hamoon, Midhili and Michaung battered the eastern coastline of India. However, these storms were well spaced, and one cyclone each struck in October, November and December 2023. This season, two storms hit Andhra Pradesh within a week. And, the third one is expected to come up over the Central Bay of Bengal around 18th November (±1 day).

Under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal, a low-pressure area is likely to form tomorrow. The system will become well-marked on 14th November and is likely to intensify further into a depression on 15th November 2026. Environmental conditions will favour adequate heat potential and offer scope for intensification into the third cyclone of the season over the Bay of Bengal. More clarity will come as and when the system takes the shape of a depression over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal.

The entire Indian coastline is at risk of a storm hit around this time of the year. As of now, all possibilities remain open, and the decisive track and landfall will have to wait until Saturday. However, unlike the previous two storms, the chances of sparing the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Coasts outnumber the other outcomes. If so, the storm will undergo recurvature well short of the coastline. The state of West Bengal and Bangladesh will face an increased threat of a cyclone strike, the first of this season. Updates on the system will be shared to facilitate preparations well in advance and enable the necessary safeguards.