Very Heavy Rainfall Over Gujarat: Localized Flooding Likely

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall will affect Gujarat today and tomorrow, with South Coastal Gujarat and Saurashtra at highest risk.
• The weather is being driven by a depression over central Madhya Pradesh and an east-west shear zone.
• Flood-hit regions in South Coastal Gujarat may witness renewed waterlogging and disruption.
• Rainfall will weaken from August 1, providing a favourable window for recovery and rescue operations.
• Forecast validity: Next 2 to 3 days.

As cautioned earlier, Gujarat is likely to witness heavy to very heavy rainfall today and tomorrow. The areas at greatest risk today include South Coastal Gujarat and the Saurashtra coastline adjoining the Gulf of Cambay. Tomorrow, the focus of intense rainfall will shift towards most parts of Saurashtra, the upper half of South Coastal Gujarat, and adjoining regions. Isolated heavy showers are also expected over the interiors of Central and North Gujarat, while scattered moderate rainfall will continue across the rest of the state over the next two days.

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Yesterday's depression over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh has moved westward and is now positioned over the central parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Maharashtra. The associated convergence zone extends ahead of the system, covering North Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, and Gujarat. In addition, an east-west shear zone is passing through the axis of the depression. Under the combined influence of these weather systems, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Maharashtra and Gujarat, with Gujarat facing the greater risk.

The situation is further aggravated as large parts of Gujarat, especially South Coastal Gujarat, were severely inundated during the previous spell of heavy rain. Fresh heavy showers over these already waterlogged areas could hamper recovery efforts and worsen flood-related conditions.

Today, intense rainfall is expected over Vapi, Navsari, Valsad, Surat, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Mahuva, and the southern coastline of Saurashtra. Although Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar, which were battered by extremely heavy rainfall earlier, may experience comparatively lighter activity, they are unlikely to escape monsoon showers completely.

Tomorrow, the rainfall belt will shift towards Saurashtra, though with slightly lower intensity than today, while extending into parts of interior Gujarat. Areas at risk include Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Morbi, Khambhalia, Dwarka, Okha, Porbandar, Rajkot, Amreli, Veraval, Somnath, Diu, Una, and Botad.

The interiors of Gujarat expected to witness rough weather include Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Anand, Mehsana, Palanpur, Deesa, Patan, Banaskantha, and Sabarkantha. The Kutch region is likely to receive moderate rainfall on both days.

Weather conditions are expected to improve from August 1 onwards, bringing a relatively favourable spell for recovery and rescue operations, if required, over the subsequent 6–7 days.