July Scores Higher Than Normal Rainfall in July: More Showers Ahead

Key Takeaways:

• Delhi recorded 253.6 mm rainfall in July, exceeding the normal 195.8 mm.
• This is the ninth consecutive year since 2018 that July rainfall has remained above normal.
• Rainfall will stay light through August 1 before increasing significantly on August 2 and 3.
• Maximum temperatures will remain around 33°C, keeping heat stress under control.
• Forecast Validity: Next 2 to 3 days.

Base station Safdarjung recorded 3.3 mm of rainfall ending at 8:30 a.m. today. With this, the total rainfall for the month of July stands at 253.6 mm, against the normal of 195.8 mm. Any further rainfall today will be accounted for in the month of August.

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This marks the ninth consecutive year, since 2018, that the city has exceeded its normal July rainfall. Last year, the observatory recorded 259.3 mm, while it recorded 203.7 mm in 2024. The highest July rainfall during this period was 507.1 mm, registered in 2021

The seasonal monsoon trough remains the chief trigger for monsoon showers over Delhi. The trough gains strength with the support of westerly systems, if any, over the mountains and the Arabian Sea winds across South Rajasthan and Gujarat. The distance of the trough line from the city controls the intensity and spread of rainfall. A southward position of the trough by more than 200 km does not favour any significant weather activity over the city and its suburbs.

Presently, the trough is well south of Delhi, passing through Jaisalmer, Udaipur, and further through the centre of the depression over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. This position is not conducive to any significant weather activity over Delhi during the next 24 hours. However, light, patchy, and isolated rain or drizzle due to localized factors cannot be ruled out.

The depression is now lying over the border areas of central Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The associated cyclonic circulation and convergence zone are located ahead of the synoptic centre, pulling the monsoon trough southward. The depression is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the circulation will shift over North Gujarat and South Rajasthan tomorrow and move further north a day later, though in a weakened state. Consequently, the monsoon trough will gradually shift northward and come into close proximity to Delhi by August 2, 2026.

Rainfall is expected to remain light and uneven today and tomorrow. Weather activity will increase on August 2, peak on August 3, and decline again the following day. Conditions will remain favourable for light showers through the entire next week. The maximum day temperature is expected to stay around 33°C (±1°C). Weather conditions will remain comfortable, and the heat index is likely to stay suppressed. However, widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, except during August 2 and 3.

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