Southwest Monsoon Withdraw And Northeast Monsoon Usher In

Key Takeaways:

• The Southwest Monsoon has completely withdrawn from India on October 15, 2026, coinciding with the onset of the Northeast Monsoon over South India.
• Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy spells is expected across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Karnataka during the coming week.
• A cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait and Southwest Bay of Bengal is expected to sustain active monsoon conditions for the next 4–5 days.
• Intermittent rainfall is likely across parts of South India between October 20 and 24, followed by a possible break during the last week of October.
• Forecast Validity: October 15–31, 2026.

As expected, the southwest monsoon has withdrawn completely from the country today. Simultaneously, the northeast monsoon has set in over the South Peninsula. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe received precursory monsoon showers yesterday. All the preconditions for the onset were aligned to facilitate the timely onset of the winter monsoon. Last year, too, the respective exit and entry of the two monsoons were simultaneous, on 16th October 2025.

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There is a reversal of the wind pattern, and the easterly stream has set in, with a depth in excess of 5,000 feet all along the coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. With the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over many parts of the South Peninsula for the next one week or even beyond that, till the next weekend.

The Northeast Monsoon primarily covers five subdivisions, namely: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka. Rains also lash other parts, such as Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Telangana and Maharashtra. Northern, central and eastern parts receive minimal rainfall during the October–December period. Cyclonic storms, if any, raise the risk of inclement weather conditions on either side of the coastline. Recurving storms drench the eastern and northeastern parts alike, with flooding rains for longer durations.

The onset phase of the Northeast Monsoon is going to be strong, and this does not happen every time. The Bay of Bengal, in proximity to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, is in a very active state. There is a closed low-level cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait and Southwest Bay of Bengal, close to the south coast of Tamil Nadu. A north-south trough is extending up to the West-Central Bay of Bengal, off the Andhra coast. The cyclonic circulation will move very slowly eastward and may take nearly 4–5 days to clear the South Peninsula region. Even when the system crosses over to the other side of the coastline into the Arabian Sea, active monsoon conditions will prevail over Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. The interior parts of the peninsula will also continue to be lashed by intermittent light to moderate rainfall between 20th and 24th October. A break in the weather activity is likely during the last week of October 2026.

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