Southwest Monsoon Left With Last Leg: Withdrawal Likely To Complete Soon

Key Takeaways:

• The Southwest Monsoon is expected to withdraw completely from India by October 15, 2026, potentially matching the early withdrawal dates of 2019 and 2024.
• Monsoon withdrawal is nearly complete across several southern and eastern states, while retreat has commenced over Assam and Meghalaya.
• The Northeast Monsoon may arrive simultaneously with the Southwest Monsoon's departure on October 15, supported by a developing Bay of Bengal low-pressure area.
• The Northeast Monsoon season is expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall, with agriculture among the sectors likely to benefit.
• Forecast Validity: October 12–15, 2026.

The Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn further from the remaining parts of Goa, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The retreat is nearly complete from Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Sikkim and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal. The withdrawal has started from Assam and Meghalaya. It looks like the monsoon exit will be complete from the country by October 15. This could be one of the earliest withdrawals and coincide with the previous retreats of the monsoon on the same date in 2019 and 2024. Last year, the monsoon vacated the country on October 16.

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The Southwest Monsoon exit will pave the way for the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon. Factually, as a precursor to the Northeast Monsoon, rains have already started over the South Peninsula. A low-pressure area is likely to come up over the Bay of Bengal in another 24 hours. This will fortify the winter monsoon rainfall over the southern sub-divisions. However, the onset of the Northeast Monsoon is subject to the complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the country. At best, the complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the arrival of the Northeast Monsoon could be simultaneous. It has happened in the past, as in 2024 and 2025. This year also, conditions are becoming favourable for this dual event on the same day, October 15.

Neither does the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon mean a complete cessation of rainfall over the region, nor should the Northeast Monsoon be construed as a continuous downpour over South India. Both simply have to make a beginning. While the exit of the Southwest Monsoon is taken as a fait accompli, the ingress of the Northeast Monsoon awaits a joyous welcome. It renews hope of success for many sectors, dominated by agriculture. With ongoing El Niño conditions, the Northeast Monsoon season is expected to be normal or above normal.

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