Pause In Monsoon Withdrawal Likely: May Resume in First Week of October

Key Takeaways:

• The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, most of Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat and West Uttar Pradesh.
• Further monsoon withdrawal from the plains may remain on hold for about a week due to widespread weather activity.
• Heavy rain is likely over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh during the next four days.
• Monsoon withdrawal may resume around 2nd October and gather pace, with withdrawal from central and eastern India likely by 10th October 2026.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, most parts of Rajasthan, some parts of Gujarat and West Uttar Pradesh. While the commencement of withdrawal from West Rajasthan was delayed by two days, the retreat was early by a similar margin from Delhi. Notwithstanding the pullback of the monsoon, scattered rain and thundershowers may visit the northern plains during the fag end of this month. Courtesy of the movement of the depression from the Bay of Bengal to the central and eastern parts of the country, further withdrawal may be on hold for the next one week or so.

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By the end of the month, the monsoon normally withdraws from Saurashtra and Kutch, North Gujarat, complete Rajasthan, Northwest Madhya Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh and all the hilly states of North India. While the monsoon may retreat from parts of the hilly areas, any further withdrawal from the plains will be held in abeyance. The process could resume during the starting days of October.

The storm from the Bay of Bengal has entered deep inland over Andhra Pradesh. It will weaken and move over Chhattisgarh and parts of East Madhya Pradesh. Later, the remnant of the system will travel over Uttar Pradesh and adjoining parts. Heavy rains are likely over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh for the next four days, albeit in a staggered manner. The peripheral regions of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Telangana, Vidarbha and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal will also have rain and thundershower activity. The heavy rains will also reach Uttarakhand and the foothills of West Uttar Pradesh. Sporadic showers are expected over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi.

Under the influence of the depression and a Western Disturbance moving across the mountains of North India, further retreat of the monsoon is unlikely. Anticyclonic circulation is likely to establish over the northern plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi around 2nd October and subsequent days. Monsoon withdrawal will resume, and the process may pick up rapid pace for the subsequent one week. The monsoon exit from the central and eastern parts is likely to be complete by 10th October 2026.

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