Monsoon Withdrawal May Recommence Soon: Vacate Central Parts Before Time

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest monsoon withdrawal started on September 19 and is expected to resume soon after a brief pause.
• Strong northwesterly winds and an expanding continental airmass are becoming favourable for a faster monsoon retreat.
• Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar may witness an earlier-than-usual withdrawal.
• Complete monsoon withdrawal from India is unlikely to extend beyond October 12, 2026.
• Forecast Validity: Next 10 days.

The southwest monsoon started withdrawal on 19th Sep from the extreme western border posts of the country. This was about two days late from the normal date. However, the retreat from some parts of Haryana and Delhi was early by a similar margin. Monsoon withdrew from Delhi on 23rd Sep against its normal timeline of 25th Sep. Withdrawal of the monsoon has taken a pause after 21st Sep from the northern parts of Punjab and from 23rd Sep onwards from the western parts. The last retreat was a partial one, vacating the Kutch region and a halt thereafter. The process is expected to recommence again anytime soon.

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The continental airmass seems to be dominating, setting up an anticyclone in the lower levels, covering regions beyond Rajasthan and spilling over to Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Strong northwesterly winds, as a precursor to the post-monsoon season, will start sweeping Delhi, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan and Northwest Madhya Pradesh. Even the upper-air features are changing in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, beyond the height of 20,000 feet. The upper-level ridge at 30,000 feet and above is appearing over the Bay of Bengal and extending deep inside the eastern and central parts of the country. All these features are becoming more pronounced from 02nd-03rd October onwards. An east-west ridge in the upper tropospheric levels is likely to come up along about 22°N. Looks like the monsoon current is suddenly reversing and may make a quick exit from large parts of the country during the next one week.

As of now, the monsoon withdrawal line passes through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya. Traditionally, the complete withdrawal of the monsoon from India finishes around 15th October. In recent years, climate patterns have often pushed the complete retreat past this normal timeline. While, in the last two years, the monsoon made a complete exit on 16th Oct and 15th Oct in 2025 and 2024, respectively, it vacated the country as late as 25th Oct and 28th Oct in 2021 and 2020.

The monsoon exit is considered complete when the withdrawal line reaches around 15°N over the South Peninsula. Notwithstanding, before-time withdrawal is likely from the eastern and central parts of the country, including the states of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The complete retreat is unlikely to go beyond 12th October 2026. There is no significant rainfall likely during the next ten days, except over the South Peninsula and extreme Northeast India.

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