Hot Days Ahead For Rajasthan: Mercury Breaches Forty-Degree Mark

Key Takeaways:

• Barmer recorded 40.5°C and Jaisalmer reached 39.4°C as post-monsoon heat intensified across western Rajasthan.
• Dry weather and rising temperatures are likely across Rajasthan, with no significant rainfall expected for approximately ten days.
• West Rajasthan recorded a 30% rainfall deficit during the Southwest Monsoon, while East Rajasthan registered a 99% rainfall deficit in the first half of October.
• Temperatures are likely to ease during the last week of October, with more pleasant evenings and nights expected in November.
• Forecast Validity: Next 8-10 days.

The withdrawal of the monsoon leaves a dry and warm air mass over the state of Rajasthan. Though, in this season, even after the retreat of the monsoon, there was some weather activity that suppressed the post-monsoon heat over the state, more so for the border posts of West Rajasthan. Barmer recorded a maximum temperature of 40.5°C, and Jaisalmer was just short of forty degrees, at 39.4°C, yesterday. Other border posts like Phalodi and Jodhpur registered temperatures in excess of 38°C. The increase in temperature after the withdrawal of the monsoon is quite natural. Clear skies with plenty of insolation and drier winds from the arid region lead to an abrupt rise in mercury at a few places. Even across the border, the parched conditions add to the misery, and heat gets advected with favourable winds.

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Courtesy of rainfall activity over the mountains and plains of North India, even after the withdrawal of the monsoon, temperatures plunged over the region, amounting to mild cold on a few days. However, no active system is likely over either the hills or the plains of North India during the next one week. Scattered clouds may come up around 21st–22nd October, but rains will be unlikely. The state will have to bear with a rise in mercury levels, more effectively in the western half.

Both sub-divisions of the state, West and East Rajasthan, recorded below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon. West Rajasthan was rather poor, with a shortfall of 30% in rainfall. The first half of October has not done any good, particularly for the eastern half. East Rajasthan has practically received no rain, and the sub-division is rain-deficient by 99%. And there is no rain likely for about the next ten days.

Western Disturbances are not very effective for the state during October–November. Rainfall, if at all, is quite sporadic and brief, too. Yes, temperatures do start easing out towards the last week of October. The extreme heat of 40°C gets over by then. The month of November becomes quite cosy and pleasant, more so during the evening and night. The state may have to wait a little longer for winter rains, which otherwise facilitate Rabi crops.