Tropical Storm Over bay Of Bengal: Landfall During Late Evening

Key Takeaways:

• JTWC has assessed the Bay of Bengal system as a cyclonic storm and named it TC01B, while the National Weather Agency continues to maintain its deep depression status.
• Strong winds of around 40 knots (72 kmph), deep moisture and sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C are supporting the system.
• As per JTWC, the system will cross the coast late in the evening between Kakinada and Srikakulam, close to Vizianagaram.
• Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana, with heavy rainfall spreading into parts of central and eastern India.
• Forecast Validity: Until Next Update.

Yesterday’s depression over the Bay of Bengal strengthened into a deep depression in the evening. As per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the system has intensified into a cyclonic storm and has been named TC01B. The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) has also supported cyclone formation, and the center is located around 17.6°N and 84.9°E, about 160 km east-northeast of Vishakhapatnam. The National Weather Agency has continued with the status of the system as a deep depression and, therefore, it cannot be a named storm as yet. In case of intensification, the storm will be named ‘Arnab’.

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The storm in the Bay of Bengal has been partially exposed as a low-level cyclonic center and placed in favourable environmental conditions. The storm is circled by strong winds around the center of the order of about 40 knots (72 kmph). The cloud-top temperature is estimated at -80°C. A deep layer of moisture and warm sea surface temperature (29-30°C) will help the sustenance of the storm till it crosses the coast. However, there are some limiting factors, like increasing vertical wind shear and entrainment due to the proximity of land, which will partially offset the strength of the system.

Its limited time over the water will put constraints on its further intensification. The weak steering current will keep the system quasi-stationary, and it may literally crawl toward the coastline of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. As per JTWC, the system will cross the coast late in the evening and make landfall between Kakinada and Srikakulam, close to Vizianagaram.

The storm will weaken a bit after crossing the coast but will keep meandering over the same area for about the next four days. Very heavy rainfall, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is likely at the time of crossing the coast over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining parts of Odisha. Heavy to very heavy rains will lash Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana for the next five days, between 23rd and 27th September. The neighbouring parts of Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha will also have scattered heavy rainfall. The interaction of the storm with the passing western disturbance across Nepal and the foothills of Bihar will create another zone of convergence. This will lead to very heavy rainfall over Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal during this period. The remnant effect of the system will lash parts of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the closing days of the month, between 28th and 30th September 2026. Exercise caution for extremely heavy rains and roaring winds in some pockets, causing localized flooding and inundation. Communication and connectivity will be at stake due to possible tree felling and transmission outages.

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