Maharashtra Remains Rain Deficit - Monsoon Withdraws From Most Parts

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from large parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Nagpur, and may soon vacate the remaining areas.
• Maharashtra received 804.4 mm rainfall against the seasonal normal of 994.5 mm, ending with a 19% shortfall.
• Marathwada recorded the largest rainfall deficit at 39%, followed by Vidarbha at 27%, Konkan-Goa at 15% and Madhya Maharashtra at 7%.
• Significant rainfall is unlikely across Maharashtra over the next 7-10 days, with no major post-monsoon system predicted till mid-October.
• Forecast Validity: Next 7-10 days.

The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from large parts of the state. The stream has exited before time from the capital city Mumbai and Nagpur. The state has 36 districts spread over six administrative divisions of Konkan, Pune, Nashik, Amravati, Nagpur and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. Earlier, the state government had already declared drought in 32 of the districts.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

The monsoon withdrawal line in the state passes through Brahmapuri, Parbhani, Baramati and south of Mumbai. There have hardly been any rains in the state during October, and the same pattern will prevail during the next one week or ten days. The monsoon is likely to vacate the remaining parts of the state anytime. Practically, the state will run into a prolonged dry spell, and the month of October may not witness any more rains.

Between 01st June and 30th September 2026, the state recorded a total of 804.4 mm rainfall against the seasonal normal of 994.5 mm. Since the state has a shortfall of 19% rainfall, the official classification will remain normal (+/- 19%). The season is considered deficient only if the shortfall is equal to or more than 20%.

The state, as such, has four sub-divisions, three of these being landlocked and only Konkan sharing a coastline of about 400 km. Out of these, the Marathwada sub-division has the largest deficit of 39% rainfall, followed by 27% in Vidarbha. Courtesy of two spells of heavy rainfall over Madhya Maharashtra, this sub-division has the least shortfall of 7% rainfall. The rainiest pocket of Konkan and Goa faces a seasonal deficit of 15% rainfall.

The southwest monsoon normally vacates the entire state by 12th October, with a margin of one standard deviation. The chances of having any significant rainfall over the next 10 days are rather bleak. After the withdrawal of the monsoon, the state literally goes into a shell of dehydration.

The chances of any further rains grow only in association with some post-monsoon storms coming up over the Bay of Bengal and straying deep inside over the central parts. On the other side of the coast, there have been occasions of tropical storms in the Arabian Sea as well. These systems do pose some challenge and threat of rains while crossing abeam Konkan and Goa and heading for the Gujarat coast. None of such situations is predicted on either side of the coast till mid-October.

Trending:

Early Withdrawal Of Monsoon From Mumbai: Hot Days Lie Ahead