Depression Forms Over Andaman Sea: Likely Intensify To Deep Depression

Key Takeaways:

• A fresh depression has formed over the North Andaman Sea near the Myanmar coastline with winds of around 30 knots.
• The system may strengthen into a deep depression within about 12 hours and could intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours.
• The threat to the Indian coastline remains minimal, with only isolated rainfall expected along coastal Odisha and West Bengal.
• The system may prolong the southwest monsoon over Northeast India, while withdrawal from other parts of the country could accelerate in early October.
• Forecast Validity: Next 24–48 hours.

Close on the heels of the storm over the Bay of Bengal last week, another depression has formed over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining Myanmar region. The system is centred around 15.7°N and 97.5°E, off the coastline of Myanmar, in the Andaman Sea. The system has a wind field of about 30 knots around its centre, with chances of becoming further stronger.

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The depression is placed under favourable environmental conditions. The vertical wind shear is low and the sea surface temperature is warm at about 28°-29°C. It is not as warm as in the case of the previous storm, when the temperature was in excess of 30°C. Every rise of 2°C in temperature increases the heat potential nearly twice and makes it more vulnerable to intensification.

The only factor not favouring rapid strengthening is its proximity to the coastline of Myanmar. The frictional forces of the terrain and the entrainment of dry air degrade the growth of the system. Notwithstanding, the depression still has a window of 24 hours for further intensification. Clarity will follow after that regarding the sustenance or slowdown of the system.

The depression is likely to move along the coastline of Myanmar over the Northeast Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea for the next 24 hours. It will strengthen into a deep depression in the next 12 hours or so. It may even pick up strength to reach the lowest category of cyclone in the subsequent 24 hours.

The weather activity in association with the system will remain confined to the coastal parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh and the sea region. The far outer peripheries of this system will have isolated rainfall activity along the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal over the next three days.

Though seasonal climatology favours the formation of storms over the Bay of Bengal around this time, the chances of this depression strengthening into a storm and affecting the Indian coastline are minimal. At best, this may prolong the southwest monsoon season for Northeast India, wherein scattered rainfall may continue till the first week of October.

The southwest monsoon, otherwise, is expected to make a quick exit from other parts of the country in the first week of October.

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