First depression of post-monsoon season is likely to form anytime soon in the Arabian Sea. A low-pressure area is now marked over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region and is likely to become well marked in the next 24 hours. Intense convection over the area and favourable environmental conditions are supportive of further intensification into a depression in the subsequent 24 hours. This is the first post-monsoon system in the Indian seas with a large probability of cyclogenesis over central and adjoining western parts of the Arabian Sea.
The low pressure over the southeast Arabian Sea supported by clearly defined cyclonic circulation has already triggered scattered heavy rainfall over Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The chief rainfall amounts are Alapuzha 97mm, Kodaikanal 95mm, Kochi 81mm, Thiruvananthapuram 66mm, and Kanyakumari 60mm. In addition, fairly widespread moderate rains have lashed most parts of these two states in the past 24 hours. More showers are expected in the next 48 hours but with lesser intensity and minimal activity thereafter on 21st and 22nd November.
The maiden weather system of the season in the Arabian Sea will keep moving west-northwest with gradual intensification. This feature will also keep dragging the moist winds away from Kerala coast. The coastline will be rather far from its reach from 20th November onward and literally at a safe distance later. Accordingly, the weather activity will reduce over Kerala between 20th and 23rd November. The next spell is expected over South Peninsula from 23rd November onward under the influence of a fresh weather system which is currently brewing over southern parts of the central and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal.
