Precursor to Tropical Storm: Low Pressure Area Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Key Takeaways:

• A low-pressure area has formed over the Southeast Bay of Bengal, centred near 8.3°N and 87.6°E.
• Sea surface temperatures of 29°–30°C and moderate wind shear are expected to support gradual strengthening.
• A tropical cyclone is unlikely within the next three days, although the system may become a depression around November 15.
• Forecast models remain divided on the system's track, with possible threats to India's eastern coast or a recurving path towards the northeast.
• Forecast Validity: November 13–16, 2026.

Under the influence of a persistent cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area has formed over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining region. The vortex is centred around 8.3°N and 87.6°E. Satellite imagery depicts disorganised convection, and the low-level circulation is loosely defined. But these are the early precursors and will get organised in due course of time.

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The low pressure is placed in favourable environmental conditions, the most important being sea surface temperature and low-level wind shear. Both will extend support for the growth and strengthening of the system. A sea surface temperature of 29°–30°C holds enough heat potential, and moderate wind shear will not impede the development. The process may be a bit slow, and a tropical cyclone is unlikely in the next three days or so.

Two cyclones, Arnab and Murasu, had earlier battered the Andhra Coast, and a third one in quick succession does pose a threat to the region. However, it is premature to predict the track and intensity with confidence at this stage. There is large divergence among the models, and the strike region varies from Myanmar and Bangladesh to the entire eastern coastline. The storm, on development, may recurve as well, skipping the coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. More clarity will come as the system gains strength to become a depression on 15 Nov 2026.