Pre-Weekend Showers for Mumbai: Very Heavy Rains Unlikely

Key Takeaways:

• Mumbai has received only 32 mm of rainfall over the past five days, with monsoon activity remaining subdued.
• Moderate rainfall is expected between July 30 and August 1 due to strengthening monsoon conditions.
• A deep depression over central India and a cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea will enhance rainfall along the Konkan Coast.
• Rainfall is expected to become light and isolated again from August 2, with August beginning on a relatively mild monsoon note.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

Monsoon activity has remained subdued over Mumbai and its suburbs over the past few days. The city has recorded just 32 mm of rainfall in the last five days, while only trace amounts of rain were observed during the past 24 hours. Rainfall activity is expected to increase over the next three days. However, the showers are unlikely to be intense enough to cause major traffic disruptions or affect connectivity.

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The deep depression over Odisha is moving westward at a slow pace. It is expected to be positioned over East Madhya Pradesh by early tomorrow and move across the central parts of the state during the subsequent 12–18 hours. Monsoon systems originating over the Bay of Bengal and reaching central or southwestern Madhya Pradesh typically strengthen the monsoon flow along the Konkan Coast. Such a setup is favourable for an increase in rainfall activity over Mumbai and its neighbouring areas.

In addition, a weak cyclonic circulation over the northeast Arabian Sea in the lower levels is expected to strengthen the westerly winds along the Konkan coastline. The combined influence of these weather systems will enhance monsoon activity over Mumbai and the surrounding region.

Moderate intensity showers are expected between July 30 and August 1, 2026. During the same period, parts of Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan are also likely to witness increased monsoon activity. Thereafter, the remnant of the monsoon system will weaken significantly and merge with the monsoon trough. As a result, rainfall over Mumbai is expected to become light and isolated once again from August 2 onward, with subdued monsoon conditions likely to continue through the rest of the week.

Overall, August is expected to begin on a relatively mild monsoon note for Mumbai.

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