Low Pressure Likely Over Bay Of Bengal: Favours Early Arrival Of Monsoon
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- A low-pressure area may form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal around May 12–13.
- The system could intensify into a depression or even a weak cyclonic storm.
- Stronger equatorial flow may help the monsoon advance into the Andaman Sea after May 15.
- Heavy pre-monsoon showers are likely over Kerala and Tamil Nadu between May 14–16.
There is a likelihood of a low-pressure area forming over the extreme Southwest Bay of Bengal, in proximity to the equatorial region, around 12–13 May 2026. A broad cyclonic circulation is marked over the equatorial region between the Equator and 5°N, covering South Sri Lanka, the Comorin region and the Maldives. An elongated east-west trough is extending on either side of the core circulation, covering the equatorial region of the Southeast Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean on the western flank, and farther parts of the South Bay of Bengal and equatorial region on the eastern periphery. Under the influence of this circulation, an in-situ low-pressure area is likely to form early next week.
This weather system may become well-marked the next day and could strengthen further into a depression or deep depression during the subsequent 48 hours. Though it is too early to make a confident assessment, climatology and oceanic conditions may even favour the system intensifying into a weak cyclonic storm. The developments need to be observed very closely over the next three days.
Historically, the monsoon normally reaches the South Andaman Sea around 20th May. It advances rapidly to cover North Andaman Sea, including Port Blair and Maya Bandar, by 22nd May. Thereafter, it reaches Kerala around 1st June, leaving a gap of 10–12 days. However, these are tentative timelines and may not always be strictly adhered to.
The likely formation of the low-pressure area will strengthen the equatorial flow on the Bay of Bengal side. The southwesterly stream may effectively sweep across the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal anytime after 15th May 2026. The north-south chain of Bay Islands is likely to receive fairly widespread rain and thundershowers between 16th and 17th May 2026. This is the period when the monsoon stream is likely to penetrate the Andaman Sea, potentially marking the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
There have been rare instances when the onset of monsoon occurred almost simultaneously or very close in timing over the Andaman Sea and Kerala coast. The advance of monsoon is generally much faster in the Bay of Bengal branch (towards Andaman) than in the Arabian Sea branch (towards Kerala). A simultaneous onset requires a massive and abrupt strengthening of cross-equatorial flow over both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea at the same time, rather than a gradual movement. The likely emergence of a depression over the Bay of Bengal may facilitate such conditions. Hefty pre-monsoon showers are likely between 14th and 16th May 2026 over Kerala and Tamil Nadu. This may even lead to an early arrival of monsoon over the mainland.
Trending:
