Low-Pressure Area Over Gujarat-Rajasthan: Heavy Rains Likely

Key takeaways:

• The low-pressure area has moved to the tri-junction of Southwest Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan and North Gujarat.
• Heavy rains are likely over Gujarat today, while South Rajasthan faces heavier showers tomorrow.
• Scattered showers may reach North Madhya Pradesh, Southwest Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Haryana during mid-week.
• Weather activity over Rajasthan may become minimal by September 20, with broad clearance from September 21 potentially setting the stage for monsoon withdrawal.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

The low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh has now moved to the tri-junction of Southwest Madhya Pradesh, South Rajasthan and North Gujarat. It is likely to move westward and shift over South Rajasthan and North Gujarat today and may recurve a little tomorrow to get placed over South and Southeast Rajasthan. Subsequently, it will weaken and likely be subsumed in the monsoon trough. The remnants of the system will give scattered showers over North Madhya Pradesh, Southwest Uttar Pradesh, Northeast Rajasthan, Delhi and the adjoining Haryana region.

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The low-pressure area has lashed parts of Gujarat and dumped heavy showers over Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar and Baroda in the past 24 hours. Light to moderate showers were recorded elsewhere over the state. Parts of South Rajasthan also got similar showers during the period. The low-pressure area is likely to weaken and simultaneously take a recurve and, therefore, slow down over parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan during the next 48 hours. Heavy rains are likely, more over Gujarat today and South Rajasthan tomorrow. The intensity of rains, thereafter, will reduce, but the spread remains for the subsequent 48 hours. Showers are expected over parts of North Madhya Pradesh, Southwest Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and adjoining parts of Rajasthan and Haryana during mid-week.

The places at risk of heavy rainfall will include Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Kheda, Morbi, Surendranagar, Mehsana, Palanpur, Disa, Patan, Sabarkantha, Banaskantha and adjacent parts of Kutch. Over Rajasthan, the showers will lash Rajsamand, Bhilwara, Dungarpur, Chittorgarh, Baran, Banswara, Jhalawar and Dausa. Scattered showers are also likely over Jaipur, Ajmer, Kota, Bundi, Dholpur, Bharatpur and Sawai Madhopur. The weather activity will be minimal over Rajasthan on 20th Sep, and broad clearance can be expected from 21st Sep 2026. This will set the stage for the process of monsoon withdrawal from the region.