Low Pressure Area Forms Over Arabian Sea May Intensify To Depression: No Effect On Indian Coastline
Key Takeaways:
- A well-marked low-pressure area over the Southwest Arabian Sea may intensify into a depression or deep depression.
- Warm sea temperatures of 29°–30°C and moderate wind shear are supporting the system's development.
- The system is likely to move westward after approximately 36 hours, limiting its potential to become a significant tropical cyclone.
- The probability of the system approaching the Indian coastline is minimal, but close monitoring remains necessary.
- Forecast Validity: 19–21 October 2026.
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A well-marked low-pressure area is lying over the Southwest Arabian Sea, with an associated cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. It is centred around 7°N and 60°E, in the far outer region of the Arabian Sea, closer to the African coastline. The low-pressure area is likely to intensify further into a depression and may become a deep depression. This is the first post-monsoon weather system of this year in the Arabian Sea.
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The well-marked low in the Arabian Sea is placed in a favourable environment at this time. The sea surface temperatures are quite warm (29°–30°C), and vertical wind shear is just moderate. The system may remain quasi-stationary for some time, which becomes conducive to intensification. However, the steering current is favouring the system to move westward after about 36 hours. It is likely to enter an area of relatively cooler temperatures and depleting heat potential of the ocean surface. The potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone is rather low. As such, weather systems, irrespective of their intensity, tend to move towards the Somalia coast or Yemen-Oman coast from this part of the Arabian Sea.
Storms over the oceans remain very deceptive. They need to be observed closely until they make landfall or exhaust themselves over the sea. The systems are known for defying the norms quite often. Though the probability of this system coming anywhere near the Indian coastline is minimal, observations need to continue vigilantly, at least for the next 36 hours. The depression needs to be tracked until it is declared benign for the Indian coast.
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