Heavy Rainfall Over Kerala Till Weekend
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Kerala may witness moderate to heavy rainfall between June 18 and 21.
- North and central Kerala districts are at risk of intense downpours.
- Strong convective activity is developing due to active trough and Arabian Sea winds.
- Kerala currently carries a seasonal rainfall shortfall of around 13%.
- Residual rainfall activity may continue till the middle of next week.
- Forecast Validity: 4 to 6 days
Kerala, Rayalaseema and North Interior Karnataka are the only three meteorological sub-divisions to record normal seasonal rainfall so far during the month of June.
Kerala had earlier received moderate to heavy rainfall during the onset phase of southwest monsoon. The state remained surplus by nearly 30% rainfall during the first ten days of the month. However, the spread and intensity of rainfall reduced later, consuming most of the surplus. As of now, between 01st and 17th June, the state remains within the normal category, though carrying a shortfall of about 13% rainfall.
Moderate to heavy rainfall activity is likely during this week, between 18th and 21st June 2026. June and July are typically the rainiest months for Kerala during the monsoon season, with each month receiving an average rainfall of nearly 650 mm.
A mid-tropospheric circulation is persisting between 10,000 and 18,000 feet over Kerala-Mahe and extreme southern parts of Peninsular India. In addition, a north-south trough is extending across the interiors of South Peninsula from Telangana to the Comorin region, passing through Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala.
The moist wind stream from the Arabian Sea is converging along the trough line, making conditions favourable for strong convective activity across the region.
Moderate to heavy rain and thundershowers are likely across the entire state of Kerala between 18th and 21st June. Isolated pockets of heavier rainfall are expected over the north and central districts of the state.
The stretch between Alappuzha and Kasaragod, including Kochi, Thrissur, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Kannur, remains at higher risk of receiving intense downpours during this period.
The ongoing wet spell is likely to partially reduce the seasonal rainfall shortfall over the state. Residual rainfall activity may continue till the middle of next week.
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