Bay of Bengal Prepares For Another Storm: Track-Intensity Remains Ambiguous

Key Takeaways:

• A fresh cyclonic circulation may develop over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 11–12, 2026.
• A low-pressure area could form by November 13, with favourable sea surface heat potential and wind conditions supporting possible intensification.
• Three potential tracks are being considered, including movement towards Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, recurvature over the sea, or a less likely movement towards Myanmar.
• Weather models have not reached a consensus, and greater clarity on the system's development and track is expected by November 12–13.
• Forecast Validity: November 11–17, 2026

There are preliminary indications of yet another cyclogenesis likely over the Bay of Bengal. Earlier, two storms, Arnab and Murasu, in quick succession, bashed the coastline from Tamil Nadu to Odisha across Andhra Pradesh. There is a renewed threat of another tropical storm coming up over the Bay of Bengal. The storm potential is developing and may soon have favourable environmental conditions to trigger the third storm of the season, all of them in the Bay of Bengal.

[Check your local weather forecast here]

A cyclonic circulation is likely over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal on 11 and 12 November 2026. This may move to the South-Central Bay of Bengal, maintaining proximity to the equatorial region. There are chances of a low-pressure area forming over the same region on 13 November 2026. Sea surface heat potential and the wind profile favour the sustenance and growth of the system.

However, there is no model consensus at this stage on the further prospects of the system. As such, the clues start becoming more informative after the system gets conceived over the ocean as a low-pressure area. Even climatologically, there is large diversification in the cyclonic storms developing over the Andaman Sea at this point in time. There are three possibilities with equitable chances of occurrence.

One – the system could gather strength and head for Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, more akin to ‘Murasu’.

Two – the storm could come over the Southwest Bay of Bengal and recurve, avoiding landfall along the coastline of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

Three – the storm has a bleak chance of getting steered early towards the Myanmar coast.

More clarity will follow by 12–13 November 2026. The storm, if it develops, will be named ‘Akvan’, as suggested by the member country Iran.