The tropical Pacific has shifted to ENSO-Neutral, likely persisting through summer and fall 2025, making seasonal predictions more challenging. With both ENSO and IOD currently neutral and MJO activity weak, the Indian Seas are unlikely to see significant weather systems in the next two weeks. Meteorologists will rely more on real-time observations to refine forecasts amid this transitional phase.
Posted on: 26/04/2025
La Niña, the natural climate phenomenon that can stir global weather extremes, has officially ended after a brief and weak run. The Pacific is now in an ENSO-neutral state, expected to persist through summer and early fall 2025. With both ENSO and IOD in neutral phases, forecasting the upcoming monsoon remains a complex challenge.
Posted on: 19/04/2025
La Niña is fading fast, with Pacific sea surface temperatures returning to near-normal, signaling a transition to ENSO-neutral. Despite lingering atmospheric features like a positive SOI, the ocean is no longer supporting La Niña conditions. This episode now goes on record as one of the shortest ever, lasting just two overlapping seasons—falling short of the threshold for a full-fledged event.
Posted on: 12/04/2025
La Niña conditions are fading faster than expected, with a swift transition to ENSO-neutral likely anytime now. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral for now, while the Madden-Julian Oscillation shows weak activity and little cyclone support. Together, ENSO and IOD may align to bring a promising Monsoon 2025.
Posted on: 05/04/2025
Big swipes over developing La Niña are flattening, and the collapse seems untenable, well before the timelines envisaged earlier. ENSO-Neutral is favored to develop in the next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere summer. This shift is mooted by sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, which is now closer to average, with anomalies falling well below the threshold mark of -0.5°C throughout the Niño region.
Posted on: 29/03/2025
La Niña conditions persist but is weakening, with ENSO-neutral likely by April. The Pacific is warming, and El Niño risks may rise later in 2025. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, and Indian seas are expected to stay calm through March.
Posted on: 22/03/2025
Weak La Niña conditions continue to persist in the equatorial Pacific. Any major impact is unlikely, as the event will be rather brief and mild, too. The pattern emerging in the Pacific Ocean resembles the ‘Modoki’ La Niña.
Posted on: 09/03/2025
January 2025 was the hottest on record, 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels and February seems to follow suit. Weak La Niña conditions persist, but warming oceans are overwhelming natural climate cycles. With ENSO-neutral conditions favored by mid-year, this La Niña may be the shortest on record.
Posted on: 01/03/2025
The current La Niña event is not without its controversies. The timings are rather unusual for the start of the event. Keeping in mind the variability of the Nino Indices, more so, the marker index Nino 3.4, the sustenance of the event is at stake.
Posted on: 22/02/2025
Although La Niña is officially here, its intensity is waning. The atmosphere isn't exactly in sync with the cooling sea surface temperatures, which raises questions about how sustainable it is. Global weather patterns are still tense due to an active MJO and a variable IOD.
Posted on: 15/02/2025
India experienced a severe rainfall deficit in January 2025, receiving only 5 mm of rain as opposed to the typical 17.1 mm, a 70% shortfall. While Lakshadweep saw an enormous excess of rainfall, Central and Northwest India were the most severely affected. States like Odisha, Gujarat and Telangana have seen little rainfall and conditions in North, West and Central India have been drier and warmer due to the absence of Western Disturbances. February is a difficult time for the nation’s winter weather because it doesn’t appear that the deficit will be recovered.
Posted on: 03/02/2025
The initial crossing of the La Nina threshold in Dec 2024 was alright, but the continuation thereafter has been rather sluggish. The Nino 3.4 index, a key indicator of ENSO conditions, has risen from a low of -1.1°C on 30th Dec 2024 to -0.6°C on 21st Jan 2025.
Posted on: 27/01/2025