Close on the heels of Monsoon deep depression during last week, another weather system has developed over Bay of Bengal (BoB). As inferred earlier, a cyclonic circulation has entered BoB from coastal parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh. The weather system stands a bleak chance of intensifying in to a low pressure area on the surface.
However, its cyclonic circulation is extending up to medium levels in the atmosphere. Southward tilt of the circulation, with height suggest persistence and possibly mild intensification over the next 24hr.
The Cyclonic circulation is likely to move inland across Gangetic West Bengal and North Odisha region. The weather system will meander over parts of interior Odisha, Jharkhand and North Chhattisgarh between 24th and 26th Aug.
Scattered rain and thundershowers are likely over West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand during this period. The weather activity will extend to reach some parts of Bihar, Southeast Uttar Pradesh and Northeast Madhya Pradesh. The forward movement of the system will be blocked by a westerly trough in the higher levels of atmosphere. On clearance, the circulation will shift to East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh on 27th and 28th Aug.
The spread and intensity of weather activity will increase on 27th and 28th to cover most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The peripheral activity will reach Southeast Uttar Pradesh and North Vidarbha. Subsequently, the system is likely to take more of northerly track and shift over North Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Madhya Pradesh.
Unlike the preceding systems, which tracked westward over Rajasthan and Gujarat, this one is likely to follow a recurving course to parts of West Uttar Pradesh and foothills. Monsoon trough may get dragged well north of its normal position during the fag end of the month. The rainfall belt will also shift accordingly over Indo Gangetic plains during that period.
