COP-29 is underway in Azerbaijan, being hosted at Baku. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the main decision-making body of the United Nations on Climate Change. The conference started on 11th Nov and gets concludes on 22nd Nov 2024. In the opening session, COP 29 adopted a mechanism of the Paris Agreement, under article 6. This article was set up as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement to help nations work together to minimize pollution and keep the global rise of temperature checked at 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial levels. There are delegates from 200 countries taking up fractious debate on Climate Change.
The year 2024 is heading for the hottest year on record. Every month of this year since May 2024 has been hotter than the earlier records. Put together, this year Jan-Sep average temperature has breached the threshold mark and was 1.54°C above the pre-industrial era. The decade from 2015 to 2024 has been the hottest of all the previous reads. Between 2000 and 2023, 3.1MN TWH of heat was absorbed by the oceans. The ocean heat content in 2023 was the highest on record.
The primary cause for the warming, according to global experts, was the strong El Nino event that kept the global temperatures above average for 16 consecutive months between June 2023 and September 2024. But then, there is a counterargument in terms of the triple dip La Nina which persisted for 32 long months, between July 2020 to Feb 2023. All these years form a part of the cavalcade of the warmest years of the recent past. Obviously, there is something more powerful, neutralizing the cool effects of La Nina along the vast stretch of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Most global agencies, including the National Weather Agency, got the La Nina forecast wrong this year. NOAA issued a La Nina ‘watch’ in May 2024, indicating that La Nina conditions were expected soon. ENSO -Neutral continues to prevail for longer than expected. Uncertainty on account of the timings and strength of La Nina remains intact. The possibility of a ‘No Show’ can not be ruled out. Nino indices continue to struggle to reach the threshold mark. Even if La Nina settles, it is likely to be weak and truncated. It would not have the potential to subject the ocean surface to any significant change.
Image Courtesy: The Statesman
