The approach of a fresh western disturbance, aided by induced cyclonic circulation is setting up the stage for a spell of winter rains over large parts of the Northern Plains. January and February are the rainiest winter months across all the northern states. Feb is a shade higher than January. Last year, the month of January ditched the complete region but February was decent enough with a minor shortfall.
The duo of western disturbance and the induced cyclonic circulation will be the highlight of synoptic features over North India, between 10th and 12th Jan. Staggered rains are expected to cover parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and North Madhya Pradesh. The intensity and spread are going to be larger on 11thJan, than the other two days. Rain and thundershowers are likely, possibly with some hailstorm activity at isolated places.
The wet spell will last between 10th and 12th January 2025. The event starts with rains lashing most parts of North Rajasthan. Contiguous parts of South Haryana and the outskirts of Delhi also stand a chance of light rain and drizzle. The spread and scale will increase the next day, 11th Jan. In addition to North Rajasthan, large parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh will have the risk of rain and thundershowers, intermittent and moderate in nature. The spread and intensity will shrink on Sunday and will be confined to northern parts of Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh.
The rainy spell will have a twist in the weather conditions with a large drop in the day temperatures and a marginal rise of mercury during the night. The persistent clouds, moderate breeze and lack of sunshine will lead to cold day conditions in many places. The cold wave, if any, will rest for this duration. However, following clearance in the weather conditions, the cold wave is expected to intensify during the third week of January.
