Though these are still early days, the month of January has mostly remained quiet, so far. Barring isolated activity on a single day, the month so far, has been highlighted by cold days and foggy conditions. The cold wave is yet to grip the region in this month and may follow the spell of rains expected across the plains, around the weekend. Last year was literally a ‘no show’ for winter rains in January for Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. However, it caught up later, in the month of February, saving grace for the season.
Conditions are building up now to have fairly wide spread rains, albeit light to moderate, over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Bundelkhand over North Madhya Pradesh. The showers may have extended reach to parts of Uttarakhand but skip the other two mountainous region.
Unlike the winter rains normally driven by the western disturbance moving across the hills, this rainy spell is mostly driven by the plains and fueled with moisture from the Arabian Sea. The circulation coming up over the north coast of the Arabian Sea first and later shifting over parts of Rajasthan and the neighbourhood will be the main trigger. Yes, there will be an upper air system as a trough in the medium and higher levels over the mountains, catalyzing the induced circulation. However, the weather activity will be largely confined to the plains and foothills and may only have peripheral reach for the hilly states.
The weather activity will start with parts of Rajasthan on 10th Jan and places like Bikaner, Jodhpur, Phalodi, Ajmer, Jaipur, and Alwar are likely to come in for light rains. As the circulation gets reinforced, the spread will increase and the intensity will pick up too, on 11th Jan 2025. Now the reach of system will include Ludhiana, Patiala, Sangrur, Jalandhar, and Chandigarh in the Punjab sector. In Haryana, the southern and border areas of the state with Rajasthan will be more vulnerable. The showers will reach Rohtak, Hisar, Rewari, Panipat, Karnal, Yamuna Nagar and Panchkula. Capital city Delhi will have its major share on Saturday only. The winter showers will lash West Uttar Pradesh and even reach the capital cities of Lucknow, Kanpur, Prayagraj and Ayodhya on 11th Jan. Northern parts of Madhya Pradesh in the Bundelkhand region will possibly have the first winter rains. Gwalior, Guna, Shivpuri, Ashok Nagar, Bhind, Morena and Tikamgarh will be within reach of the weather system. Light showers can extend even further over central parts of Madhya Pradesh.
Large clearance in the weather activity is expected the next day, on 12thJan, except isolated pockets of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. A total clearance is likely at the start of the next week. However, some parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjacent pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan may have another round of rains between 14th and 15thJan 2025.
Image Courtesy: ANI