Southwest monsoon hit India with a bang and now it’s time for northeast monsoon to begin. Northeast or winter monsoon in India starts from October and lasts till December and affects south and northeast India. Although less well-known and less powerful than its rainy summer equivalent (southwest monsoon), northeast monsoon accounts for over 48% of its rain in Tamil Nadu and 30% in Kerala and interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra and Rayalseema.
“According to Skymet, this year south peninsula is expected to receive rain of over 100% and Tamil Nadu alone is expected to receive rainfall of over 114% (± 25%). Present and forecast SST (sea surface temperature) conditions suggest that the temperatures over Pacific Ocean are warmer. This will therefore warm the Indian Ocean, affecting peninsular India and result in a good northeast monsoon over the south”, explains Mahesh Palawat, head of the Meteorological team at Skymet.
Though, the setting of the northeast monsoon is yet to take place in south India. “The reason is simple. Southwest monsoon has been very long this year and still has not withdrawn from the country. Therefore a delay in the retreat of the southwest monsoon has now led to a delay in the arrival of northeast monsoon”, added Palawat.
“Our weather model suggests rainfall from northeast monsoon will be near normal or marginally below normal in October, whereas it may pick up and record above the normal average in November”, says Makarand Kulkarni, Chief of Statistical Research at Skymet.
The long period average (LPA) of the Northeast monsoon season rainfall over southern Peninsula from 1951- 2000 is 332.1mm. And the long period average (LPA) of the Northeast monsoon season rainfall over Tamil Nadu alone for the same period is 438.2mm
Currently, a cyclonic circulation in south central Bay of Bengal is extending towards interior Tamil Nadu. This is may cause rain and thundershowers at south coastal Tamil Nadu and interior Karnataka.
Photo by livechennai.
