At the time when India is heading towards major fall in wheat production, a fresh spell of winter rains has revived the hopes of grief-stricken farmers of North India. However, the approaching weather activity may not help in overcoming the expected loss but can surely improve the conditions up to some extent.
India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, is expected to witness a drop in wheat output for the second consecutive year in 2016 due to an unusual warm winter in central and northern India.
According to Skymet Weather, winter rains are approaching plains of Punjab and Haryana during next 24 hours and the spell is likely to continue for another 48 hours with varied intensity.
This spell holds great relevance for wheat cultivators that have been hit hard due exceptional warm winters this year. Lack of moisture in the soil, absence of winter rains and above normal temperatures have adversely affected the crop yield.
The prevailing Western Disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir has induced a cyclonic circulation over North Rajasthan and adjoining areas. Moreover, another Western Disturbance that will start affecting the Western Himalayas from tomorrow, will further intensify the rain activity.
Initially from January 28 night, we expect light rain over parts of North Rajasthan and West Haryana. Thereafter, rain belt will gradually shift eastwards and cover many parts of Haryana and most areas of Punjab by January 29.
Subsequently, rains will reduce significantly on January 30 but isolated places may still observe light to very light rains.
We expect a marginal drop in maximum temperatures during the wet spell. But after the passage of the weather systems from the region, minimum temperatures will take a dip across the northwestern plains by at least 2-3 degrees. This will lead to dense fog over the areas.
The change in the weather will be beneficial for the wheat production and as well as for the Mustard crop.
This is the second straight year when India will accumulate lower wheat output after the series of bumper harvests since 2007.
In 2015, untimely rains and hailstorm during harvesting season had reduced the output to 88.94 million tonnes from 91.50 million tonnes a year.
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