The opening month of monsoon season is in trouble. The rainfall deficit has grown to 19% of the long-period average (LPA). Regional deficiencies are alarming and are in excess of 60-70% rainfall in the eastern, western and northern parts of the country. The rainiest pockets along the Western Ghats and Northeast India are in a state of distress. The remaining days of the month are not promising any major recovery. The month is likely to end far below the normal and the carry forward margins will be difficult to accomplish.
Monsoon started on a scintillating note with before-time arrival and speedy advance over complete Northeast India. But soon, the stream got stalled on either side of the coastline, more so, the eastern arm from the Bay of Bengal. It is yet to recover from the shock leaving anxious moments for the farming community, right at the beginning of the Kharif season.
Lack of Western Disturbances: Irrespective of the season, western disturbances play a major role in more than half of the country. In the absence of any active western disturbances, the plains of North India had a torrid pre-monsoon season. Unprecedented heat and unusually prolonged anhydrous spells over the north, centre and eastern parts of the country ruined the seasonal statistics, beyond recovery. The ordeal continued in the month of June, which otherwise bring some cheers with timely monsoon burst over large parts of the country.
Scarcity of Monsoon Systems: The Indian seas on either side of the coastline are synonymous with monsoon lows and depressions, after the ingress of monsoon currents. Both, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea remained barren and failed to produce a single effective weather system. Truly, these systems are the drivers of monsoon for the country, throughout the season. Southwest monsoon has completely run under its own internal energy and dynamics.
Hang Over Effect of El Nino: The year gone past was a strong El Nino year. As it usually happens, the El Nino conditions continued effectively through the spring season. Under its influence, the north, west and central parts witnessed unprecedented oppressive heat. Seasonal rains were reduced to a trickle, leaving large deficiencies. The national capital reeled under scorching conditions with persistent drought-like conditions in May and June. These two months witnessed a recorded rainfall deficit of over 90%. The El Nino seems to have softened and ENSO turned neutral. However, the hangover effect of El Nino is quite common and takes a few more weeks to settle score in the Pacific Ocean.
Skymet was quite apprehensive while issuing the comprehensive monsoon forecast in April, this year. El Nino effect was consciously factored in the forecast and categorically mentioned that the start of the monsoon is going to be aberrated. The least rainfall of the monsoon months was listed in the month of June and is likely to remain below normal. Spatial and temporal distribution is expected to improve in the month of July, the core monsoon month of the season. Particularly, the monsoon rainfed zone will find a better rainfall distribution. It may not be possible to cover the deficit left behind but the exclusive month of July will save the grace of the season.
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