The first Western disturbance of October 09 has given scattered light to moderate rain with isolated snowfall over the Western Himalayas. A fresh Western disturbance is now over northern parts of Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. We expect light to moderate rain and snowfall to occur over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, and parts of Himachal Pradesh. Light rain and snowfall are possible over Uttarakhand. The peak intensity of rain and snow seems to be on the night of October 16 and may continue until October 17.
The impact of this Western disturbance will be felt over the Northern Plains as well in terms of rainfall. Western disturbance usually starts approaching the Western Himalayas from the month of October and continues until March. The intensity and frequency are the highest during the months of December and January.
This year we have seen the Western disturbance approaching the western Himalayas a little bit early therefore, the temperatures over the Northern Plains will start dropping by the third week of the month itself.