A pair of western disturbances is likely to approach the western Himalayas commencing 25th January 2024. The duo of weather systems will move in tandem, without a gap in between. The first system will impact the weather conditions between 25th and 27th Jan, while the trailing disturbance will have a bigger spread of activity and prolonged stay between 28thJan and 01st Feb. Foothills of Punjab and Haryana and neighbouring plains may also have rains in the last leg of the wet spell.
The first western disturbance will arrive on 25th Jan. Its influence will remain confined to the higher reaches with scattered light snow, between 25th and 27th Jan. There is no effect likely, even along the lower hills and foothills during this period. The subsequent disturbance will arrive on 28th Jan and possibly get aided by an induced circulation over the plains between 31st Jan and 01st Feb 2024. Spread and intensity are likely to be more during this period.
The second spell will cover the entire mountain ranges of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand. To start with, mid and higher reaches with elevation above 12,000 feet will get ploughed with light snow between 28th and 30th Jan. The intensity will pick up and reach also get extended to the foothills on the 30th and 31st Jan. Plains of Punjab and Haryana and some parts of Rajasthan and Delhi may also get their share, albeit light, on the 01st & 02nd Feb 2024. As the models are reliable only up to a lead time of 4-5 days, the forecast lacks accuracy for the subsequent period. Accordingly, the Meteorological developments will have to be watched carefully for precision and accurate forecasts for the latter half of the period.
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