The state of Rajasthan has been drenched this monsoon season. Both the sub-divisions, East and West Rajasthan have recorded excess and large excess seasonal rainfall. Between 01st June and 18th September, West Rajasthan scored over East Rajasthan, wherein, the western half has a surplus of 75% and the eastern half has about 49% rainfall of the long period average (LPA). While West Rajasthan has literally dried up during the last 10-15 days, the eastern parts continue to enjoy the monsoon showers. Border posts like Jaisalmer and Bikaner over West Rajasthan have not had a drop of rain, since the last 2 weeks. Even, Barmer, Phalodi and Jodhpur have remained dry for the last one week.
Lack of rainfall over border areas of Rajasthan needs pondering to decide about the withdrawal of monsoon, albeit from a small segment of the state. Like last year, the retreat commenced on 25th September, with the withdrawal line passing through Barmer, Phalodi and Jaisalmer. The subsequent withdrawal from a few other parts of the state took another one week. The humidity levels have also dropped considerably over farther areas of West Rajasthan. However, the wind pattern of typical dry northwesterly winds associated with the withdrawal is getting infringed frequently, restricting the classic pattern of cessation of monsoon over West Rajasthan.
There is a likelihood of the formation of yet another monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal, by about this weekend. The inland track of the system suggests its movement from the East Coast to the western end of the country, across the central parts. This complete process will take, over one week, from now. Though the weather model skills degrade with lead time of about 4-5 days, the timelines suggest it to reach the state of Rajasthan, around the fag end of the month. Though, there is no hard and fast rule as such, and the rains can happen over a region, even after the withdrawal is announced, but subject to observance of other parameters. Still, the declaration of commencement of withdrawal will remain a contentious issue and a judicious call needs to be taken.
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