West Pacific Ocean is loaded with tropical storms in its different sections. Tropical storm ‘Lupit’ is closest to the land mass of mainland China. Another storm ‘ Tropical Depression 12’ will be heading for extreme southern parts of Japan. Yet another set of storms will meander mostly in the open seas without striking mainland.
West Pacific hosts Philippines Sea, South China Sea, East China Sea and Japan Sea. Typhoons and tropical storms form in the West Pacific with no seasonal bounds. However, June to September is the most active period for cyclogenesis with August being the super active individual month. This duration also coincides with the Indian Southwest Monsoon season. Month of May is the least active during the summer season of Northern Hemisphere. West Pacific is currently hosting 4 tropical storms at various stages of their life cycle.
Tropical Storm Lupit : Tropical storm is centered around 23.1°N and 116.9°E in the South China Sea. Storm is about 250km Eastnortheast of Hongkong and tracking northward with a speed of 15kmh. Lupit will cross China coast by late night or wee hours of Friday, 06thAug. The weather system will retain its strength for another 36hrs and weaken thereafter over land.
Tropical Storm ‘ Fifteen’ : The storm is intensifying further for the next 24hr and recurve northeast later. Cyclone will remain in the open sea and keep safe distance from the mainland Japan. Presently, the storm is centered around 31.6°N and 147.4°E, about 800 km Eastsoutheast of Yukosuva, Japan.
Tropical Depression ‘ 12W ‘ : The tropical depression is centered around 29.1°N and 138.5°E, about 900km Eastsoutheast of Sasebo, Japan. The depression is intensifying and is expected to strike extreme southern parts of Japan in the next 48hr.
Tropical Depression ‘ 14W’ : The depression is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm in less than 24hr. Also, it is expected to strike island ‘Jeju’ shortly and enter East China Sea thereafter. It is likely to track over open sea for the subsequent 48hr, keeping a safe distance from mainland Japan.
All these weather systems in the West Pacific become fairly strong and intensify to typhoons quite often during the peak season. These storms influence the wind pattern miles away extending reach up to Bay of Bengal. Presence of these storms invariably suppress the active monsoon conditions over the Indian sub-continent. Their presence also precludes formation of monsoon systems in the Indian Seas. Few of these storm do track westward to move across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar and enter Bay of Bengal as weak systems. They reemerge over the open waters to strengthen in to depression and activate the monsoon current.
The monsoon current will enter in to a weak phase resulting subdued activity over most parts, except along the foothills of Indo Gangetic plains. Formation of any fresh monsoon low is unlikely till the peak activity in the Pacific subsides. This may take 7-10days and result ‘ break monsoon’ conditions till the first half of August. Heavy rainfall is likely during this period along the foothills of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Northeast India. Weak monsoon conditions over the country also lead to some good rains over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.