Well marked low pressure area persists over West-Central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). Cyclonic circulation extends up to 25,000 feet, tilting southwestward with height, a very normal feature of monsoon systems. Upper winds in the inner core of the system remain weak and the peripherals are strong enough and exceed threshold of monsoon depression. Low pressure is likely to move northwest very slowly and cross the coastline sometime late in the day.
Proximity of land is increasing friction and may suppress its further intensification. As against the earlier prediction of a likely depression, the environmental conditions may not suffice and support strengthening. Though, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS-Madison) still keep the chances of intensification as moderate. However, entrainment and ruggedness of terrain may not permit so and well marked low moves inland over parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and neighbourhood over the next 48 hours.
Presently, the well marked low is centered around 18°N and 85°E. Wind speed is limited to about 35-40 kmh, much below the desired level of >50km for depression. Broad circulation is centered almost east abeam Kalingapatnam, by about 100 km. The weather system will nearly crawl for the next 24hour to reach the coast. Southwest sector of the monsoon systems holds the most intense weather activity. The convergence zone of the low pressure is positioned deep inland covering parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and adjoining parts. East and west Godavari, Guntur, Amravati, Vijaywada, Eluru and Krishna will be vulnerable to localized flooding. Kurnool, Anantapur and Cuddappah also bear the risk of heavy rains. Southeast parts of Telangana stretching across Suryapet, Nalgonda, Warangal, Ramagundam, Khammam and Mehbubabad are likely to witness very heavy rains over the next 2 days. Northern parts of Karnataka like Bellary, Raichur, Vijaynagar, Bidar and Kalaburgi may get exposed to inclement weather conditions during this period.
Numerical models are depicting a funny and unusual track of the well marked low pressure. After staying near the trijunction of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka, the models are tracking it northeastward over Chhattisgarh and Odisha on 28th July and further to Gangetic West Bengal and Bangladesh later. Such a movement possibly happens when the easterly steering current over South Peninsula is weak or there could be a deep westerly trough in the higher levels recurving the system. None of these feature are visible in the model output. Disruption of ‘Tibetan High’ can also sometime lead to these unusual tracks but this dominant monsoon feature remains intact. Such an indifferent movement of the monsoon system is nearly becoming inexplicable. Possibly, the dynamical forces, which can not be accounted for, are dragging the monsoon low to its otherwise normal position at this point of time over the ‘Headbay’ (north BoB). System track and the model output need to be observed closely for any extreme changes in the next 48 hours.
