The well-marked low pressure area in south Andaman Sea continued to sustain its strength during the last 24 hours. Cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions are indicating towards its further intensification into a depression by December 4.
According to Skymet Weather, the weather system would continue to move in west-northwest direction in favourable weather conditions and may further intensify into a deep depression in the subsequent 48 hours. However, we will have to wait and watch whether the system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm or not.
The system would initially move towards North Tamil Nadu, giving moderate rains and thundershowers over North Coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai around December 7. Few spells of heavy rains also cannot be ruled out.
[yuzo_related]
Thereafter, the system is most likely to re-curve in north-northwest direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely to lash Coastal Andhra Pradesh on December 7-8. However, rains would reduce by December 8 but weather would not go dry completely as peripherals of the system would continue to impact weather over Chennai and nearby areas of North Tamil Nadu.
As the system moves ahead moderate to heavy rains are also expected South Coastal Odisha on December 8-9.
Earlier weather models were showing that system would head towards North Tamil Nadu. In fact, higher level winds were taking the system to the same location. Moreover, sea surface temperatures (SST) over Southwest Bay of Bengal are warm, due to which chances of intensification of the system into a cyclonic system were very high.
Now, as per the latest weather models, weather system is moving in higher latitude where SST are relatively cooler and vertical wind shear is also high. All these factors do not support the intensification of the system. Hence, as of now, it is a wait and watch situation for the system.
Image Credit:
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
