After sustaining strength of low pressure area for the last 24 hours, the system in Southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining area has further intensified into a well-marked low pressure area. At present, it is located around 815 km east-northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
According to Skymet Weather, cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions are indicating that system will continue to get more marked and is most likely to induce a depression by Friday evening.
“Weather conditions are favourable for the rapid intensification of the system as vertical wind shear is low in the range of 5 knots - 10 knots, along with warm sea surface temperatures between 30°C to 32°C. With all these factors in place, probability of development of a cyclonic storm increases manifolds,” said Mahesh Palawat, Chief Meteorologist, Skymet Weather.
The system will continue to track in north-northwesterly direction towards Bangladesh or Myanmar coast.
The well-marked low area is a fast moving system and with this, we expect the formation of cyclone by tomorrow i.e. April 15. If it happens, it will be the first cyclone of the season that will be names as ‘Cyclone Mora’.
However, weathermen are of the view that it may not intensify into a severe cyclonic storm due to the close proximity to the land mass. The probability of system reaching the coast would be within the next 72 hours i.e. by April 17 and degenerate rapidly.
Chances are quite high that system may not make landfall as a cyclone, as suggested by the weather models. But we need to wait and watch.
Though the weather system will spare the East Coast of India but northeast states of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura may receive moderate to heavy rains and thundershowers on April 16-17.
Meanwhile, coastal states of Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh would see cloudy weather during the next few days.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com