Low pressure area over South Andaman Sea has become well marked and is located around 8°N and 94.5°E. The weather system is about 250 km southeast of Port Blair and 500km south of Yangon (Myanmar). Maiden low pressure in the Bay of Bengal of pre-monsoon season may intensify further to become a depression and also shift northeastward. The depression is likely to stay over the Gulf of Martaban for about 24hr and cross the Myanmar coast on 02nd April late-night between Yangon and Tavoy.
Presently the satellite imagery depicts the system as a disorganized cluster of clouds in association with broad low-level cyclonic circulation. However, it is placed in a favourable environment with warm sea surface temperature(29°C-30°C) and moderate wind shear of 20-30kmh. Accordingly, it is expected to consolidate for further development, albeit marginally and strengthen to a depression before making landfall between 02nd and 03rd April. Based on numerical model consensus, the probability of formation of a cyclonic storm is rather bleak and its potential to become a cyclone in the next 24hr is extremely low.
Weather disturbances forming over the Andaman Sea in the month of March are generally weak and do not grow into storms. Their sea travel is not adequate to turn in to a hazardous storm. Few of them have a tendency to fizzle out while over the ocean itself depending upon the environmental factors. Bay Islands including Car Nicobar, Mayabandar and Port Blair may get heavy rains in the next 24hr and ease out thereafter when the system parks itself in the Gulf of Martaban and moves further away towards Arakan Coast.
