The low pressure area over Tenasserim coast, adjoining Andaman Sea has now developed into a depression and is centred around 11.5°N latitude and 95°E longitude. The low level cyclonic circulation associated with this system is also consolidating and getting organised. Satellite images are also showing deep convection suggesting intensification of the system.
With low to moderate vertical wind shear, the upper level winds too are showing a conducive environment, for further intensification of the depresion in the Andaman Sea.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, numerical models are showing a rapid development of this system into a tropical storm as it moves into the central parts of Bay of Bengal by October 9. From here on the system will move northwestward and make landfall over coastal parts of Odisha between Gopalpur and Balasore by October 11.
As a result, the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha could expect clouding around the 9th of October. Just the next day, on October 10 there could be rain in the region, which may pick up in intensity by October 11. Heavy rain in the region will also be accompanied by gale winds as the system will develop into a tropical storm by then and make landfall.
Climatologically, these storms forming in the Bay of Bengal during the month of October generally strike the Odisha and Bengal coast.
