As predicted earlier, the deep depression over Kutch ( Gujarat ) has intensified into a tropical storm. The cyclone has been christened ‘ASNA’, as proposed by Pakistan, the member country for naming cyclone in the Indian Seas. The storm is centred around 23.4°N and 68.3°E, about 50 km west-northwest of Naliya, a forward airbase of Air Force in Kutch. The cyclone is likely to move westward to reach open and relatively warm waters of the Arabian Sea. Asna is going to be a short-lived storm and may diffuse in about 48 hours.
The storm centre lies very close to the coastline of Gujarat and is, therefore, subject to frictional force, inhibiting its immediate intensification. As the storm moves a little deeper over the ocean surface, it is likely to gain strength. Presently, the winds in the inner ring of the storm are of the order of 65 km/h and gusting to 85 km/h. Since the storm is very close to the borderline of Gujarat, the surface winds in the coastal areas will be fairly strong. Naliya, Jamnagar, Okha, Dwarka, Khambaliya, Morbi and neighbouring parts will have strong winds, in excess of 55-60 km/h for the next about 12-18 hours and subside later. The sea conditions in the storm area and coastline of Saurashtra & Kutch will be very rough. The wave height along the coast could be taller than 6-8 feet. However, other than strong winds accompanied by moderate rains, there is no major threat foreseen for the sub-division of Saurashtra and Kutch. As the storm keeps moving away from the coast, the weather conditions will keep on becoming better.
The cyclone may gain strength after about 18-24 hours, as it moves over the warm ocean surface with temperatures in excess of 28°C. The vertical wind shear will decrease and the frictional effect will also reduce. The winds are likely to become stronger, between the range of 75-90 km/h tomorrow morning. The storm will track westward, parallel to Makran Coast, keeping a safe distance from the shoreline of Pakistan and Iran. The storm will be heading for the Gulf of Oman. As it reaches close to the coast of Oman, the introduction of stable air from Somali Jet and the entrainment of drier and cooler winds will weaken the cyclone. The sea surface temperature is also dropping as it nears the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. The cyclone will weaken considerably, much before striking the coast of Oman on Sunday, 01st Sep 2024.
Asna is an outlier storm in the Arabian Sea in the month of August. As such, storms are rare in the Indian Seas during the monsoon season, and the evolution of cyclones in the Arabian Sea during August is exceptional and extremely unusual. Since 1891, only three cyclonic storms have appeared over the Arabian Sea in August. Asna is also the first storm in August over the Arabian Sea, since 1976. Northern parts of the Arabian Sea are generally cooler than the rest and therefore, most storms die down while over the open waters of the ocean.
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