The intensity and progress of the Southwest Monsoon depends on the Monsoon systems that come up over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. However, these Monsoon systems are more frequent in the Bay of Bengal. In fact, while the weather system in the Arabian Sea only gives rain over the West Coast, systems in the Bay activate both the East and the West Coast.
After the initial onset of Southwest Monsoon, the progress of Monsoon has become slightly sluggish. While rains in Northeast and East India will take the eastern branch of Monsoon forward, a push in the form of a weather system is needed for the advancement of the western arm of the Southwest Monsoon.
Currently, weather models are indicating a possible formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh coast in the form of a cyclonic circulation. The system is likely to mark its presence around June 16 or so. Due to this weather system, the progress of Southwest Monsoon is expected to pick up pace.
Thereafter, the weather system is expected to become more organized. Also, by June 18, the system may become well marked. This weather system is expected to increase rains over two fronts namely East and Northeast India along with the Peninsular India around the weekend.
This weather system will result in good rainfall activity over the southern states along with Maharashtra including Mumbai. In fact, all the three divisions of Maharashtra including Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra will receive rains during this time. Konkan and Goa will also witness enhanced rainfall activity. Furthermore, areas including parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will also receive some rains.
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