Updated on September 25, 2015, 11:10 AM (IST):
The upper air circulation over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal continues to prevail in the region without any significant changes.
Weather models at Skymet however show the system strengthening in next 48 hours and turning into a low pressure area. This system will initially cause weather in the Andaman region.
During Monsoon these systems do not intensify much but with the season coming to an end there are high chances of the system having a long sea travel and strengthening further.
However, during this time the Bay system does not travel deep inland. They have a tendency to strike the coast of Andhra Pradesh and then take a recourse towards Northeast India. During this travel the system affects Odisha, West Bengal and Bihar as well.
Updated on September 24, 2015, 3:47 PM (IST): Fresh weather system brewing up in Andaman Sea
September definitely did not begin on a very positive note. In the first week of the month, rains were confined to Northeast India. This was because of the Monsoon trough, which had shifted closer to the foothills of the Himalayas.
With the commencement of the second week, a fresh Monsoon system appeared in the Bay of Bengal. This system travelled across Central India and intensified into a deep depression by September 17. By then, another weather system developed in the Bay of Bengal and finally re-curved towards Northeast India. Third week onward Monsoon rains were observed simultaneously over North, Central, East and Northeast India. Most parts of the country received moderate to heavy showers on September 21 and 22.
As of now, a fresh system is brewing up in the Andaman Sea. It will become more organized and well-marked during next 48 hours. In another 24 hours, the system could further strengthen into a low pressure area. At present, this weather could be seen as a cyclonic circulation in the mid-levels, between 7000 and 15,000 ft. The system will first have to percolate in the lower levels to organize.
The fresh weather system will start affecting the coastlines, in terms of rainfall, only after Monsoon ends officially. In other words, it will remain in the sea for another 7 days.
The last week of September has a history of weather systems developing in the Andaman Sea. Such systems usually get a long sea travel. This is because the waters in the sea warm up and conditions remain favorable for weather systems to intensify into tropical storms as well.
Skymet will keep tracing the present weather system in the Andaman Sea.
Image courtesy - pakistanweatherportal.com