This year Southwest Monsoon neither had a good beginning nor a decent progress in most parts of the country including Gujarat. The state has experienced only one significant spell of rain this Monsoon season.
Skymet Meteorology Division in India has been reiterating the fact that from being the rainiest state last year Gujarat could be the driest this evolving El Nino year.
Monsoon rain in Gujarat
Surat holds a monthly average of 600 mm of rain in the month of July but till the 15th of July it has received only 6 mm of rain. Similarly Ahmedabad, holding a monthly average of 281 mm of rain, received only 0.3 mm of rain during the same period.
The only substantial spell of rain observed in the state this month was in a span of 3 days from the 16th of July when Veraval received 158 mm of rain, Surat 118 mm, Rajkot 98 mm and Ahmedabad 58 mm of rain. The deficit has kept mounting and touched 93% in the state.
Cumulative Rain Deficit came down by 30% in just 10 days
Till 9th of July, cumulative rain deficit in the sub-division of Saurashtra & Kutch remained 83% and Gujarat as a whole 92%. The state showed some improvement by the 13th as the deficit reduced to 75% over Saurashtra & Kutch, and 91% in the entire state. Good showers brought down the rain deficiency significantly and by the 20th, the deficit in the state came down to 61% and to 57% over Saurashtra & Kutch. Around that time rain deficit came down appreciably over Central and East India as well.
However, weather activity in terms of rain remained on a low key in last 3 days, and as of 22nd July Gujarat is deficit by 62% while Saurashtra & Kutch by 59%.
Will 2014 end up with a huge deficit like 2012?
After analysing last 3 year’s data, Skymet Meteorology Division in India came to the conclusion that the weather in Gujarat is shaping up somewhat similar to El Nino year 2012. Though we are just half way through the season and any significant spell can bring huge variations, present scenario and the facts stated below seem to substantiate this statement.
2011- Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch- (+52%)
Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat- 0 (normal)
2012 (El Nino year)- Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch (-34%)
Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat- (-28%)
2013- Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch (+64%)
Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat (+31%)
Delayed and Poor Monsoon
Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat by 15th June. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. But this year a poor scenario prevailed as Monsoon rain over the state had been delayed beyond a limit of repair.
The western arm of the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), passing through Veraval and Surat, remained stagnant from 15th of June to the 15th of July.
picture courtesy- Madhyamam
