Despite all the improvement and advancement in technology that we have seen over the last couple of decades, one aspect of life still remains frustratingly difficult to predict, and therefore control. We are talking about the weather here, and the attempts made worldwide, on a daily basis, to predict or forecast the weather. Of course, this is not to say that we have been completely unsuccessful in this regard, but it is illuminating to see that weather forecasting is so inexact that it has actually become popular as a betting option at online casinos.
Yes, you now have the option to bet on the weather at an online casino. The way this works is that gambling providers produce odds on different phenomena such as rain, snow, or temperature, with these markets being the most popular during seasonal changes, or when freak weather conditions are taking place. Other markets look at records, such as the highest amount of rainfall, lowest temperature recorded, and so on, for a particular location, with odds being offered on the record being broken in a specific timeframe.
This is an interesting fallout of our inability to predict the weather accurately, but it is also important to note why this is the case. People have usually been able to predict the weather for that particular day accurately enough; it is the longer weather patterns that are the trickiest to forecast. Consider the case of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) last year. The apex weather forecasting body in India predicted a normal monsoon period for the country between June and September last year, with rainfall expected to be at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA). At the same time, it also forecasted a hotter winter than normal for the northern part of the country. What transpired was the complete opposite. India saw monsoon rains that devastated large parts of the country with floods, including the states of Bihar, Assam, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, while north India was hit by one of its coldest winters ever on record.
The rainfall was recorded as the highest in the country since 1994, with an excess of over 110% over normal levels, while the capital city, New Delhi, saw its harshest winter in 100 years. This goes to show just how difficult the job of weather forecasters is, but there are reasons for this, primarily the way in which weather is modeled.
There are generally three types of weather forecasts: short-term forecasts for a week to 10 days, seasonal forecasts for a period of 60 to 90 days, and long-term forecasts which look ahead as far as 30 to 40 years into the future. Short-term forecasts are done by inputting data from weather stations all across the country every six to 12 hours into a weather model, which then churns out a forecast. However, in the specific case of the IMD, some of these input variables are dodgy, especially in remote areas such as the Himalayas where there are not enough weather stations. Interpolation of results in these cases leads to incorrect results which do not account for the difference in terrain and other on-ground variables. At the same time, the nature of the weather in India, which faces a tropical climate, is inherently more unpredictable than that seen in the USA or Europe, which makes forecasting all the more difficult.
In general, weather forecasters get the short-term and long-term forecasts right, it is the seasonal forecast that is the trickiest to nail accurately. The high number of variables and their interactions make using past data and correlations difficult, as those relationships may not hold every single time, while the growing amount of pollution, as well as climate change, has disrupted long-term weather patterns all over the globe, causing seasonal variations and changes which are difficult to predict.
This is where the real action remains in India, and Betway casino for Indian players get their attention. Most seem to be heeding this advice as weather wagers are sparse at best.