Monsoon trough is a big driver of rain in the northern plains during the Monsoon season. There are periods when the Monsoon trough shifts to the foothills of Himalayas, which leads to sharp decrease in rainfall over most parts of the country but increase along the Himalayas and parts of Northeast India and Southern Peninsula. Generally rain decreases over the west coast as well.
Going by the then prevailing conditions, Skymet Meteorology Division in India confirmed on the 21st of August that Monsoon had gone for a break. In Meteorological terminology, 'break' in the Monsoon comes when three or more consecutive days of rains are way below normal in the 'core Monsoon zone'.
The week gone-by week experienced break in Monsoon conditions. As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Southwest Monsoon remained active over Northeast India. There was a general decrease in rainfall over major parts of the country including the west coast.
A fresh system developing in the Bay of Bengal could help in the revival of Monsoon by the end of this week.
A look at the weather forecast for this week.
North India:
With the Monsoon trough lying closer to the foothills, the unprecedented dry spell over North India will continue, at least for first half of the week. Subdued activity likely to continue in the plains of North India till the 27th of August. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan could still observe 100% rainfall deficit on a daily basis. Even the hilly regions of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are facing similar weather conditions.
Rising temperatures over the plains could amount to heat wave like conditions with most of the places witnessing maximums 3 to 4⁰C above normal average. Pockets of Haryana and Rajasthan could record day temperatures as high as 40⁰C or even above.
The low pressure area over westcentral Bay could start affecting weather by the 28th of August and,
- Firstly, be responsible for reviving Monsoon in India.
- Secondly, it will also lead to a southward shift of the Monsoon trough line.
- Thirdly, it will bring a change in the wind pattern and drop in temperatures over entire Uttar Pradesh and to some extent even Delhi.
A feeble Western Disturbance could bring some rain over the hilly states by the weekend.
Central India:
The system forming in the Bay of Bengal will take a southerly track and move across Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and finally dissipate after reaching Konkan and Goa. Therefore the weekend could see some productive rain over the area.
East & Northeast India:
Southwest Monsoon will remain active over Northeast India for the first half with isolated pockets of Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Meghalaya receiving heavy showers. But as rain increases over Central India by the weekend, intensity of rain will decrease over these parts.
South India:
Under the influence of the system, west coast inclusive of Mumbai could receive good showers. As the city is running short of the monthly average rainfall, it could meet the deficit by the end of the month.
