The capital city has been witnessing above-normal temperatures consistently in the second half of October 2024. The base observatory has recorded the lowest temperature of 17.4°C, so far, on 15th October 2024. The minimum has hovered around 20°C for the last one week, about 2°-3°C above normal. There was a slight drop today morning when the minimum temperature got lowered to 19.2°C. Any further drop is unlikely and the mercury may find an upward trend.
Delhi had earlier recorded the lowest minimum temperature of </= 14°C for the last consecutive four years in October. The lowest temperature over the last two decades at 12.5°C was registered on 29th October 2020. This was followed by a minimum of 13.5°C on 26th & 28th October 2009. The lowest temperatures are invariably recorded in the last week of the month. October 2024 may defy this norm.
A severe cyclonic storm has just crossed the Odisha coast, today morning. The wind pattern over the central and adjoining northern parts in the lower levels will continue to be governed by further movement of this storm, which albeit is on a weakening note. The winds will have a warmer easterly component till 27th-28th Oct. Thereafter, a western disturbance will approach higher reaches of the northern mountains between 28th and 30th October. The presence of the system will not allow any rise of mercury in the plains, including Delhi. In the wake of this system, moderately strong northwesterly winds may blow across these parts. But, still, a deep plunge will be unlikely, as the low and mid-height mountains will not receive any significant weather activity in terms of rain and snow.
The temperature over the national capital drops, only after taking a clue from the sweeping cold winds, down the slopes of the northern mountains. A marginal dip in the temperature will be quite likely between the 30th and 31st of October, but may not suffice to make any appreciable dent in the winter nip. Typical winter chill may go missing in the remaining days of this month. A shivery feel, synonymous with the arrival of winter, may roll over to post-Diwali for the national capital.