It is October end and the national capital is witnessing dry days and softly warm nights. Mercury during the day also is exceeding the normal temperature at this time of the year. The winter chill is yet to arrive and is not likely to be anytime soon. The base observatory at Safdarjung has recorded a minimum temperature in excess of 20°C, yesterday and today and the mercury levels are 4°-5°C above the normal across various parts of the city. Temperature is unlikely to dip in the next couple of days.
As per the pentad normal, Delhi starts the month with a minimum of 22°-23°C and lowers down to about 15°C at the fag end. This month is defying all the norms and continues to make the winter flavour wait for longer than desired. The average minimum temperature for the month is around 19.1°C and the mean minimum between 01st and 28th February has been clocked at 21.4°C, more than 2°C above the normal. The record observatory of Delhi at Safdarjung has measured the lowest temperature of 17.4°C, so far in this month. In the remaining three days of this month, the temperature is expected to hover around 20°C and may even breach 21°C, during this period.
Safdarjung recorded the lowest minimum of under 15°C for the last four consecutive years in October. The lowest temperature of the last two decades was 12.5°C, recorded on 29th October 2020. The lowest ever temperature of this month was 9.4°C, recorded on 31st Oct 1937. The average for the month of October 2024 is likely to hang around 21.3°C, which could be one of the warmest in the last two decades or more. Also, it has been completely dry this month, so far. In the recent past, the years 2007,2011, 2017 and 2018 also remained totally dry and 2024 will increase this tally.
There is no weather system likely to affect the plains of North India in the next one week or ten days. Feeble western disturbance is moving across the northern mountains affecting higher reaches. There is a dry circulation over North Pakistan and adjoining border areas, in the lower levels. This will restrict any rise in the minimum temperatures. After, the passage of the system, there could be a slight drop in the mercury on 31st Oct. However, the dip may not last long and in fact rising mercury may be witnessed, once again, during the first week of November, as well.